Mathematics of Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases

The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature, rainfall and humidity), on the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), remains a subject of considerable debate within the scientific community. While some argue that climate change could lead to no real change or even a net decrease in the global burden of VBDs, others predict a devastating increase in VBD burden and expansion of geographic range of the vectors. Attempts to settle this controversy through modeling have faced numerous challenges, including uncertainties in the climate simulation models used and inadequate knowledge of the precise effect of climate change on host-pathogen-vector interactions. This talk presents a mathematical modeling framework for gaining realistic insight into the effect of current and future projected climate change on the spread vector-borne diseases, with emphasis on malaria (one of the most devastating VBDs).  In particular, series of mechanistic models (which take the form of non-autonomous systems of nonlinear differential equations) will be designed, analysed and used to predict vector abundance and disease burden (in chosen communities) under various climate change scenarios. Suitable ranges for the chosen climate variables (temperature and rainfall) for maximum disease transmission will be presented.

Invitado de Jorge Velasco